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| Criterion |  Product Strategy DIBB |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-2 h | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tags1 shared | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |