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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 Experten | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |