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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-5 Tage | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 Experten | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |