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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitysame | High | High | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | Half day | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 Experten | 3-12 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Leverage Map, Action Strategy | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |