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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | Half day | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-10 | 3-8 | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |