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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-10 | 4-12 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |