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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Operations A3 Problem Solving |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 45-90 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-10 | 2-5 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | A3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations | SensemakingDecisionRationale |