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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Half day | 60-180 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 4-20 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | SensemakingDecisionRationale |