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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 15-45 min | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |