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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making OODA Loop |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 15-60 min je Zyklus | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Situation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action Updates | Leverage Map, Action Strategy |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | DecisionChangeLearningStrategy | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy |