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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery MVP Test Matrix |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When several minimal variants compete to answer the same question, it makes comparing and choosing between them cleaner. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Test Matrix and a Test Plan. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 45-75 min | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Test Matrix, Test Plan | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryOptions | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |