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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 30-60 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 1-5 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |