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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration: scenarios and architectural decisions are connected to identified risks.
Architecture
ATAM (Architecture Tradeoff Analysis Method)
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.ATAM helps teams weigh architecture decisions when quality goals compete. The team considers business goals, stakeholder expectations, and technical decisions together. The evaluation shows which risks need further investigation.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen10-30 min je ItemSeveral meetings plus preparation and analysis; total effort depends on scope1-4 h or multiple rounds
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten1-8Evaluation team, architects, and relevant stakeholders4-12 Experten
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesPrioritized quality scenarios in a utility tree, Architecture risks with reasoning and assumptions, Sensitivity and trade-off points, Findings report with open investigationsEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
ArchitectureQualityRiskTradeoffsStakeholders
EstimationExpertsForecasting
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