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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration: scenarios and architectural decisions are connected to identified risks.
Architecture
ATAM (Architecture Tradeoff Analysis Method)
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.ATAM helps teams weigh architecture decisions when quality goals compete. The team considers business goals, stakeholder expectations, and technical decisions together. The evaluation shows which risks need further investigation.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen10-30 min je ItemSeveral meetings plus preparation and analysis; total effort depends on scope15-45 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten1-8Evaluation team, architects, and relevant stakeholders1-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesPrioritized quality scenarios in a utility tree, Architecture risks with reasoning and assumptions, Sensitivity and trade-off points, Findings report with open investigationsPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
ArchitectureQualityRiskTradeoffsStakeholders
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
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