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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 45-60 min | 15-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | EstimationUncertaintyRisk |