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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations A3 Problem Solving |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 45-90 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 2-5 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | A3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations | EstimationExpertsForecasting |