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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations 5 Whys |  Operations Root Cause Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. | When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 10-30 min je Item | 15-30 min | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Root cause notes, Countermeasures | Problem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving | Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident |