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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Three Horizons |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Three Horizons helps clarify strategic options across different timeframes. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and investment choices, and captures the result as a horizon map, portfolio view, and initiatives per horizon. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Halbtags-Workshop, dann iterativ | 60-180 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 4-20 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Horizon map, Portfolio view, Initiatives per horizon, Resource plan | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyInnovationPortfolioForesight | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | SensemakingDecisionRationale |