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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Theory of Change
Systems Thinking
Theory of Change
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Decision Tree method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Decision Tree
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.Theory of Change translates a desired impact into a traceable chain of change. It makes assumptions, intermediate goals, and measurement points visible before a program is rolled out at scale.When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped.For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch.
Complexitydifferent
HighHighLowMedium
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen2-6 h30-90 min30-90 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten4-122-81-6
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesTheory of Change Map, Assumptions, Outcome MeasuresConstraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision BoundariesDecision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
ImpactOutcomesSystems thinkingStrategy
ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions
DecisionTreeOptions
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