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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Systems Mapping |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Leverage Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Systems Mapping arranges elements, relationships, and boundaries so a complex field becomes legible at a glance. The overview stabilizes the overall picture before detail work or steering begins. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | Leverage Points show exactly where interventions in a system produce a disproportionate effect. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a leverage map and action strategy. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 45-90 min | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 2-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | System Map, Dependencies, Leverage Points | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Leverage Map, Action Strategy |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingMappingBoundariesChange | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Systems thinkingChangeStrategy |