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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking System Dynamics Simulation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | System Dynamics Simulation makes assumptions about time, delay, and feedback testable through experiments. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a simulation model and scenario reports. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 45-90 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-5 Modellierende, Stakeholder asynchron | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Simulation Model, Scenario Reports | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Systems thinkingDynamicsSimulationAnalysis | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |