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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 0.5-3 Tage | 1-4 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 5-15 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking | RiskDecisionSensemaking | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |