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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Soft Systems Methodology |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Soft Systems Methodology helps explore unclear or politically charged problems systematically. Instead of forcing a quick answer, the method builds a shared understanding of perspectives and room for action. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 0.5-3 Tage | 45-90 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 5-15 | 2-8 | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Rich Picture, Root Definitions, Conceptual Models, Change Agenda | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Soft systemsComplexitySensemakingSystems thinking | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight |