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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage | 20-35 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic | 1-5 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |