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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic | 2-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |