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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 0.5-2 Tage | 30-90 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 4-12 | 1-10 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | SensemakingDecisionRationale |