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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Root Cause Tree Analysis |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Root Cause Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a problem with several suspected causes, the method builds a causal structure instead of a mere list. It makes visible how causes connect and where the strongest points of leverage lie. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h | 45-90 min | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Cause Tree, Evidence Notes, Countermeasures | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Problem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Root causeTreeIncidentQuality | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident |