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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Root Cause Analysis.
Operations
Root Cause Analysis
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When a problem keeps recurring and the cause stays unclear, the method exposes the underlying mechanism. It separates symptom, guess, and robust explanation from one another.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumHighHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen1-4 h2-6 h2-8 h
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten3-83-82-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesProblem Statement, Cause Hypotheses, Confirmed Causes, Action PlanCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention IdeasProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
Root causeProblem solvingQualityIncident
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
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