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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 20-35 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 | 1-5 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |