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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration of a Test Card with four fields for hypothesis, test, metric, and success threshold.
Product Discovery
Test Card
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report.DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report.The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumLowLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen1-2 Wochen pro Iteration1-2 h20-35 min
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten2-62-81-5
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesPrioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results ReportDIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning reportTest Card with a pre-set threshold
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions
StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
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