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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Risk Matrix |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-60 min | 20-35 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-10 | 1-5 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk Matrix, Top Risk List | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |