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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Red Teaming |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 h | Half day | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionSensemaking | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |