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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Delivery RAID Log |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as a RAID Log and a source for status reporting. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30 min Setup, dann laufend | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-3 maintaining, briefing for everyone | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | RAID Log, Status Report Source | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskTrackingStakeholdersGovernance | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |