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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Strategy Product Vision Board |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When a product needs a shared direction, it connects target audience, benefit, and business picture in a clear vision. It makes the envisioned future legible for the team. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 h | 45-90 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Product Vision Board, Vision Statement, Assumptions and Validation Questions | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | VisionCanvasStrategyAlignment | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |