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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Problem Interview |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When the picture of the problem still needs to become solid, it asks about real situations and consequences. It separates genuine suffering from mere interest in a solution. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 30-60 min je Interview | 45-90 min | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 5-12 Interviews | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Problem Evidence, Risk Notes, Customer Segments | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | DiscoveryInterviewsValidation | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis |