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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Operations Weekly Review |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | In a week with many open loops, the method creates distance from operational noise. It organizes commitments, calendar, and projects so the next week becomes workable. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 30-60 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 1 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Updated Task System, Weekly Focus, Next Actions | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ProductivityExecutionPlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |