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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 1-8 | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |