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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |