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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Scenario Planning method illustration showing its working structure
Business Strategy
Scenario Planning
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path.DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowHighLow
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen20–45 min0.5-2 Tage1-2 h
Participantsdifferent
6-30 ExpertenSmall cross-functional group4-122-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logScenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust OptionsDIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
StrategyUncertaintyPlanning
StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis
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