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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 1-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |