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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Constraint Analysis |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 30-90 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Constraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tags1 shared | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |