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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Business Strategy Business Model Canvas |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The Business Model Canvas condenses a business model to its key building blocks and assumptions. It makes variants quickly comparable and reveals gaps before validation or implementation begins. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 1-2 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Business Model Canvas, Assumption List, Business Hypotheses | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Business modelStrategyValueInnovation | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |