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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Growth A/B Testing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 45-60 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 1-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation |