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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Agile Planning Poker |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When estimates within the team diverge too much, it puts differing expectations on a common test bench. It separates rough complexity from unspoken assumptions. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-5 min je Item | 45-90 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-9 | 2-8 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Relative Estimates, Assumption Notes, Split Candidates | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationAgileRelative sizingTeam | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationExpertsForecasting |