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Criterion
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration for Planning Poker.
Agile
Planning Poker
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Purposedifferent
When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.When estimates within the team diverge too much, it puts differing expectations on a common test bench. It separates rough complexity from unspoken assumptions.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
1-4 Wochen2-5 min je Item45-60 min1-4 h or multiple rounds
Participantsdifferent
6-30 Experten3-92-84-12 Experten
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesRelative Estimates, Assumption Notes, Split CandidatesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
EstimationAgileRelative sizingTeam
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
EstimationExpertsForecasting
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