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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Agile Planning Poker |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When estimates within the team diverge too much, it puts differing expectations on a common test bench. It separates rough complexity from unspoken assumptions. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 2-5 min je Item | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 3-9 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Relative Estimates, Assumption Notes, Split Candidates | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationAgileRelative sizingTeam | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |