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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 15-45 min | Half day | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 3-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |