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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 15-45 min | 0.5-2 Tage | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 4-12 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning | EstimationExpertsForecasting |