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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 15-45 min | 2-8 h | 10-30 min je Item |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 2-8 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting |