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| Criterion |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 1-4 Wochen | 15-45 min | 2-8 h | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 6-30 Experten | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |